The Dumbest Smart People…

I watch Jeopardy once in a while, and it almost always drives me nuts when the contestants make their bets during Final Jeopardy.

I’m gonna talk math, and I know some of you are a little math-phobic (wink, wink) but this just bugs me. This happened last week. I don’t remember the contestants’ names, but the show ended something like this…. Going into Final Jeopardy, our three contestants have the following scores…

Suzy 12,900
Fred 12,500
Sam 5,000

This is how the basic strategy should play out…

Suzy’s strategy is basic… protect against Fred. If Fred bets it all and gets it, he’ll have 25,000, so Suzy bets 12,101… easy enough.

Now Fred, let me pull you aside and talk to you for a minute. The ONLY way you can win is if Suzy gets the Final Jeopardy question wrong, regardless of how much you bet. Think about that for a minute... It doesn't matter if your answer is right or wrong... you can only win IF Suzy gets the question wrong. So your strategy should be based solely on the plan that Suzy WILL get it wrong. If Suzy gets the question wrong, you know she will be betting 12,101, and her final amount will end up being 799. How much do you need to bet to ensure that you win when she gets it wrong?.... That’s right, moron, 0!!!! If you bet it all, you are not improving your chances of winning, and you’ve given Sam in third place the golden ticket if both you and Suzy get the question wrong.

Ok Sam, you should know that the only way you can win is if both Suzy and Fred get the question wrong. Sam should know he can still win, and at least set himself up for second place, even if he gets the question wrong. Sam should also know that Suzy will be betting 12,101, and he’s hoping that Fred is a moron and bets it all. Sam should have bet 0, knowing that he has enough to win if everything goes right, and that will still leave him with enough for second place if Fred gets the question wrong.

Well of course, last week’s episode didn’t quite play out like this. Everyone got the Final Jeopardy question wrong. Suzy bet 12,101, so she was left with 799. Fred could have won with 12,500 if he had bet 0, but of course he bet 12,500 and was left with 0. Sam could have won with 5,000, but of course he also bet it all, as was left with 0.

I know, I’m rambling, but isn’t this obvious strategy? I know I’m pretty dense most of the time, so am I missing something here? Or better yet, why do I even care? I'm such a dork :-)

I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen these supposed smart people screw this up.